Probabilistic Outcomes
The world runs on likelihoods, not certainties. Kids learn to think in probabilities instead of "yes or no," building comfort with uncertainty.
Introduction
Decision Literacy for Kids is designed to help educators and families teach young learners how to think through choices, evaluate options, and reflect on outcomes. The lessons push students to analyze, evaluate, and create as they move through the course.
Part of the Literacy for Kids Ecosystem
Open-source curricula for children ages 8–12, designed to help kids understand the systems that shape modern life.
Core Concepts
The curriculum is organized around a set of mental models that help students understand decision-making in practical, durable ways.
Brain Shortcuts (Heuristics)
Our brains take mental shortcuts that usually help but sometimes mislead. Knowing your defaults is the first step to overriding them.
Opportunity Cost
Every choice carries a hidden price tag — the next-best option you didn't pick. Seeing these invisible trade-offs transforms decision-making.
Diminishing Returns
More isn't always better. The 10th hour of practice helps less than the 1st. Knowing when to stop optimizing is itself an optimization.
Iterative Decisions
Few choices are permanent. Most can be tested, measured, and improved. Design → Test → Measure → Patch → Repeat.
Curriculum Roadmap
The learning progression moves from foundational decision-making concepts into increasingly complex and creative applications.
Weeks 1–4
Probability & The Physics of Choice
Randomness, probability, process vs. outcome thinking, and the Decision Journal — building the foundation for everything that follows.
Weeks 5–8
Debugging the Hardware
Heuristics, loss aversion, sunk costs, and the framing effect — turning the lens inward to study the brain's default settings.
Weeks 9–11
Data & Signal Processing
Expected value, signal vs. noise, and the reversible/irreversible framework — quantitative tools for cutting through uncertainty.
Weeks 12–14
Game Theory & Social Systems
Ripple effects, the Prisoner's Dilemma, and the Tragedy of the Commons — expanding from "me" decisions to "us" decisions.
Weeks 15–18
The Optimization Project
Identify a real friction point, design a protocol, test it with data, and iterate — applying every tool to a genuine personal challenge.
Start Teaching Decision Literacy
Begin with Week 1 and give students a clearer understanding of how to think through decisions thoughtfully.
Found a mistake or have a suggestion? Open an issue on GitHub.
Version 1.0
This curriculum is an open project and will continue to improve as teachers and families use it.